Sbi Ecorap Report Claims Growth May Go Down To 6 Point 8 Percent – एसबीआई की रिपोर्ट में दावा, शून्य से 6.8 फीसदी नीचे जा सकती है विकास दर

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लॉकडाउन और कोरोना महामारी के भीषण चपेट में आई भारतीय अर्थव्यवस्था पर चालू वित्त-वर्ष में काफी बुरा असर पड़ने वाला है। एसबीआई की मंगलवार को जारी इकोरैप रिपोर्ट में बताया गया है कि 2020-21 में भारत की विकास दर शून्य से 6.8 फीसदी नीचे जा सकती है। वहीं, मार्च से लॉकडाउन शुरू होने की वजह से बीते वित्त-वर्ष की आखिरी तिमाही में विकास दर 1.2 फीसदी रहने का अनुमान है।

इकोरैप के अनुसार, वित्त-वर्ष 2019-20 की तीसरी तिमाही (अक्तूबर-दिसंबर) में विकास दर सात साल के निचले स्तर पर 4.7 फीसदी रही थी। वहीं, पहली तिमाही में विकास दर 5.1 फीसदी व दूसरी तिमाही में 5.6 फीसदी थी। एसबीआई ने कहा है कि चौथी तिमाही के आखिरी सप्ताह में लॉकडाउन की वजह से कारोबारी गतिविधियां पूरी तरह ठप हो गई थी।

इस कारण जनवरी-मार्च में विकास दर 1.2 फीसदी रह सकती है। राष्ट्रीय सांख्यिकी कार्यालय 29 मई को पिछले वित्त-वर्ष के जीडीपी आंकड़े जारी करेगा। इससे पहले एसबीआई ने अनुमान जताया है कि बीते वित्त-वर्ष में विकास दर 4.2 फीसदी रह सकती है, जो पहले 5 फीसदी रहने का अनुमान था। 

एक हफ्ते में 1.4 लाख करोड़ की चपत
रिपोर्ट में बताया गया है कि मार्च के आखिरी सप्ताह में लागू हुए लॉकडाउन की वजह से महज 7 दिनों के भीतर अर्थव्यवस्था को 1.4 लाख करोड़ रुपये की चपत लगी। साथ ही नए वित्त वर्ष के शुरुआती दो महीने लॉकडाउन में जाने की वजह से विकास दर शून्य से भी कम हो गई है।

अनुमान है कि 2020-21 में जीडीपी वृद्धि दर (-) 6.8 फीसदी तक गिर सकती है। लॉकडाउन में हुए कुल नुकसान का 50 फीसदी रेड जोन से जुड़ा है, जिसमें देश के अधिकतर बड़े जिले आते हैं। अगर रेड और ऑरेंज जोन को देखा जाए तो कुल नुकसान का 90 फीसदी यहीं हुआ है। 

वैश्विक रेटिंग एजेंसी क्रिसिल ने अनुमान जताया है कि चालू वित्तवर्ष में भारतीय अर्थव्यवस्था को सबसे खराब मंदी का दौर झेलना पड़ेगा। क्रिसिल ने कहा, आजादी के बाद से भारत में यह चौथी मंदी है और 1990 की उदारीकरण के बाद पहली। लॉकडाउन और कोरोना महामारी के प्रभावों को देखते हुए लग रहा है कि इस साल भारतीय अर्थव्यवस्था 5 फीसदी तक घट जाएगी।

सबसे ज्यादा असर पहली तिमाही (अप्रैल-जून) में दिखेगा, जहां जीडीपी 25 फीसदी तक घटने की आशंका है। अर्थव्यवस्था पर नुकसान का अंदाजा इससे लगाया जा सकता है कि कुल जीडीपी के 10 फीसदी के बराबर स्थायी नुकसान हो सकता है। ऐसे में विकास दर महामारी के पहले की स्थिति तक पहुंचने में तीन साल लग सकते हैं। इससे पहले भारत में 1958, 1966 और 1980 में मंदी का दौर आया था।

असर… एक नजर में 

  • 2.5 फीसदी की तेजी रहेगी कृषि आधारित अर्थव्यवस्था में
  • 16 फीसदी गिरा है औद्योगिक उत्पादन मार्च में
  • 60.3 फीसदी घट गया निर्यात अप्रैल में
  • 35 फीसदी गिरावट आई नए दूरसंचार उपभोक्ता में
  • 35 फीसदी की कमी आई है रेलवे की माल ढुलाई में 
घरेलू रेटिंग एजेंसी इंडिया रेटिंग्स ने कहा है कि चालू वित्तवर्ष में राज्यों का राजकोषीय घाटा डेढ़ गुना बढ़कर जीडीपी का 4.5 फीसदी यानी 8.5 लाख करोड़ रुपये हो जाएगा, जो पहले 3 फीसदी रहने का अनुमान था। इतना ही नहीं राजस्व वसूली और खर्च की खाई भी चौड़ी होकर 2.8 फीसदी पहुंच जाएगी। केंद्र ने राज्यों को बाजार से 5 जीडीपी का फीसदी उधार लेने की छूट दी है, जो उन पर राजकोषीय दबाव और बढ़ाएगा।

निर्माण क्षेत्र पर असर
रेटिंग एजेंसी क्रिसिल ने कहा है कि राज्यों के राजस्व घाटे में इजाफे की वजह से निर्माण गतिविधियों पर बुरा असर पड़ेगा। कर वसूली में नरमी के कारण अधिकतर राज्य खर्च घटाने की तैयारी में है जिसका सीधा असर निर्माण क्षेत्र पर होगा। 2020-21 में राज्यों ने खर्च के लिए 5.7 लाख करोड़ का बजट रखा है, जिसमें अब बड़ी कटौती का अनुमान है।

लॉकडाउन और कोरोना महामारी के भीषण चपेट में आई भारतीय अर्थव्यवस्था पर चालू वित्त-वर्ष में काफी बुरा असर पड़ने वाला है। एसबीआई की मंगलवार को जारी इकोरैप रिपोर्ट में बताया गया है कि 2020-21 में भारत की विकास दर शून्य से 6.8 फीसदी नीचे जा सकती है। वहीं, मार्च से लॉकडाउन शुरू होने की वजह से बीते वित्त-वर्ष की आखिरी तिमाही में विकास दर 1.2 फीसदी रहने का अनुमान है।

इकोरैप के अनुसार, वित्त-वर्ष 2019-20 की तीसरी तिमाही (अक्तूबर-दिसंबर) में विकास दर सात साल के निचले स्तर पर 4.7 फीसदी रही थी। वहीं, पहली तिमाही में विकास दर 5.1 फीसदी व दूसरी तिमाही में 5.6 फीसदी थी। एसबीआई ने कहा है कि चौथी तिमाही के आखिरी सप्ताह में लॉकडाउन की वजह से कारोबारी गतिविधियां पूरी तरह ठप हो गई थी।

इस कारण जनवरी-मार्च में विकास दर 1.2 फीसदी रह सकती है। राष्ट्रीय सांख्यिकी कार्यालय 29 मई को पिछले वित्त-वर्ष के जीडीपी आंकड़े जारी करेगा। इससे पहले एसबीआई ने अनुमान जताया है कि बीते वित्त-वर्ष में विकास दर 4.2 फीसदी रह सकती है, जो पहले 5 फीसदी रहने का अनुमान था। 

एक हफ्ते में 1.4 लाख करोड़ की चपत
रिपोर्ट में बताया गया है कि मार्च के आखिरी सप्ताह में लागू हुए लॉकडाउन की वजह से महज 7 दिनों के भीतर अर्थव्यवस्था को 1.4 लाख करोड़ रुपये की चपत लगी। साथ ही नए वित्त वर्ष के शुरुआती दो महीने लॉकडाउन में जाने की वजह से विकास दर शून्य से भी कम हो गई है।

अनुमान है कि 2020-21 में जीडीपी वृद्धि दर (-) 6.8 फीसदी तक गिर सकती है। लॉकडाउन में हुए कुल नुकसान का 50 फीसदी रेड जोन से जुड़ा है, जिसमें देश के अधिकतर बड़े जिले आते हैं। अगर रेड और ऑरेंज जोन को देखा जाए तो कुल नुकसान का 90 फीसदी यहीं हुआ है। 


आगे पढ़ें

सबसे खराब मंदी का दौर झेलेगा भारत : क्रिसिल




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